Yearly Archives: 2015

Almost Always Bull

The Stock Market, playing the long game, and the importance of setting long term goals.

The past couple of weeks have been a wild ride for those following news of the stock markets. Wild swings, low dips and sell offs not seen in recent years, and speculations about uncertainty in foriegn markets. To many outsiders and armchair analysts, there were fears of bubbles and overvaluations. Allusions were made to the crash of 2008 despite this being nothing like 2008. But, there are many who make profit from such FUD, so here was an opportunity to spread it.

But, those in the know pay little attention to the daily ups and downs of the market. They know that, while the Day Traders might make some fast cash to spend on hookers and blow that way, it has little to do with true wealth. Those who know the market know those folks play the short game.

The smart players, at best, see such low dips as a buying opportunity — like a retail Labor Day sale. Most just ignore it because 3% off is hardly a bargain to tell your friends about. Nay, the truly market savvy are looking far out into the future. The trends they look for are not measured in days or weeks, but years. "Let’s look at where this stock was at 5, 10, and 20 years ago" they’ll say. Because that’s how true wealth is built and measured. They play the long game.

To put it in a concrete example, if you bought $1000.00 of Apple stock in 1998 and still had it today, would you really worry if it took a 5% hit tomorrow? The correct answer is "No". Why? Because you would not only be so far ahead today in 2015 it would be silly but you know that in almost 20 more years it could easily be worth 10, 20, or even 100 times more. Why, because it is worth a hundred times more now than when you bought it less than 20 years ago. The long game is almost always "bull".

This is why it is important to think about, name, set, plan, and work towards multi-year goals. What goals do you want to achieve in 5 years? How about 10 years and 20 years? What does your life look like? What seemingly daunting yet massive, slightly scary, but oh-so awesome things are there? Have you thought about that? Have you put a name on them? Are they on your calendar? Have you mapped out how to get there and achieve them? Do you have a rough idea of the steps you need to take?

If not, you are basically playing the short game with your life. And, frankly, like a Day Trader your success and failure is at the whims of your daily to-do list. Get a lot done today and your life is a bull market. Get little done and it’s a bear market. And, like the Day Trader, your life will feel rich one day and bankrupt the next, more than partially due to forces beyond your control. A boss who dumps a project in your lap or a colleague who interupts you or the person that pulls you into a last minute meeting or the kid who gets sick or the car that breaks down. All of these can sweep in and kill the action of those without goals. Just like China screwing with their currency can send the whole world of short players into a tizzy, so can just about anything wreak havoc on the short player’s task list.

But, those with meaningful, long term goals, know to mostly ignore the fluctuations in their daily grind. That all of this is towards a larger and more meaningful goal. That success is measured in years and not days. You know that the value of that item on your list is a pittance because it will pay off one hundred fold when you finally reach that lofty goal. And if you don’t make any movement on it at all today, hey you’ve got 5,10, or 20 years, and with that much time just about anything is possible.

My Perfect Mall

Recently, my friend Garrick and I came up with the following thought exercise: If you were to design the perfect shopping mall, what types of stores would it have? The rules are simple. It does not have to be existing brands or even what one would find in the modern American mall — just types of stores. To keep it easy we limited ourselves to ten.

Most malls have become bland wastelands of fast fashions targeted towards the lowest common denominator. Beige behemoths located, usually, “out there somewhere” and easily accessible only by those with cars. Yet, the first earliest shopping malls were designed to be a destination centerpiece for the urban family around which walkable self-sustaining communities would form. That was what Victor Gruen envisioned when inventing them.

We thought the exercise would, perhaps, reveal some things about what we like and are interested in that we had not considered before. We also thought that it would expand the idea of what a shopping mall could be.

Here’s mine.

  1. A men’s clothing store that carries well made, affordable, timeless, basics. Clothes that last long, wear well, and never go out of style.
  2. A fine pen and stationery store, specializing in imported brands/items (Japan, Germany, etc.) with some vintage items too.
  3. A travel store specializing in light packing clothing and gear.
  4. A really, really, good independent book store with an excellent children’s section, a mix of universally revered classics and great new releases, an expansive selection of magazines and literary journals from all over the world, and a knowledgable staff who provide great recommendations.
  5. A really good cooking store that sells seriously good supplies for the home chef.
  6. A store that sells nice bags of all different shapes, sizes, materials, and uses.
  7. A fitness center with a nice indoor running track, good modern exercise equipment, and plenty of yoga and meditation class offerings.
  8. A museum with a nice mix of classic and contemporary art. There is a price attached to every painting — so you could theoretically buy anything assuming you have the money to do so.
  9. A great hat store. From formal to casual and everything in between. Some good vintage stock as well.
  10. A nice gift store with unique, interesting, useful, and fun items for all ages. The kind of place that always has that “just what I’m looking for” gift for family or friends.

There you have it. I suppose I’m not surprised by any of these. Most that know me well probably would not be either. Still, it was fun to imagine and see what sorts of things are important to me. Quality is a big one — a theme that pops up over and over again. Also interesting is what is not in my mall. One may notice there is not an Apple Store or any modern technology store in there. I’m not against those things, obviously. They just should be in someone else’s mall, not mine.

I find this a lot of fun to think about and have left room on the page I listed these in case I want to expand my malls offerings to more than ten.

Right Livelihood

Right Livelihood is the fifth precept in the Buddhist Noble Eightfold Path. I have found this one the most difficult for me to find a way to apply to my online interactions and communications (and, thus, write about).

The precept is meant to speak to the way we make income or take on tasks. It discourages making any profit from those businesses or dealings which harm others, ourselves, or otherwise do not respect life. In the Buddha’s time, this spoke to things such as drug dealing, weapon manufacturing or sales, slavery, butchery, and even fortune telling. While I’m sure there are people using social media tools like Twitter and Facebook to help facilitate such transactions, I have not had any first hand experience with such. I certainly do not traffic in any of these nor do I ever plan to. Therefore, it would be easy for me to call this one "done" and move along.

But, I don’t think any of us should get off so easily when navigating the Eightfold Path. Each precept is meant as a prompt for our deeper consideration. Therefore, I feel compelled to seek any way my business dealings might be falling short of my greater spiritual goals. In a way, to borrow the popular Christian meme, I find myself asking "What would the Buddha do?".

Is the price of my products a fair one on both sides of the transaction? Am I paying too much attention to impermanent metrics like sales, downloads, or followers? Am I advertising my products and services in a way that is boastful, deceptive, or insensitive? All of these could just as easily fall under and be addressed by the concepts within Right Livelihood.

Right livelihood also stresses that we do not take our work for granted. That all of our actions, especially our daily tasks, are the result of all that came before and simply a contribution to a greater whole. That pride and hubris in our success is simply a recipe for suffering when change in such inevitably occurs so we should not dwell on it. So, to use social media to constantly promote our good work and congratulate ourselves on our own success simply makes this insecurity apparent to the world. Work that is consistently good speaks for itself.

I use the concept of Right Livelihood to remind me to keep my focus on doing work that contributes to the greater good, that is meaningful and helpful to those that choose to purchase my products and services, to humbly realize that any failures or successes will be fleeting, and that the most mindful path is to simply continue to do good work.

As the old Zen proverb says, "Before enlightenment, chop wood and carry water. After enlightenment, chop wood and carry water.