Seeing The Future

Not long ago, at the mall, I found myself standing outside of the Microsoft Store which is strategically built directly across from the Apple Store. I stood at the window and watched the people playing in front of the Kinect demo. I made a point to look mostly at the players and the strange sort of pantomime they were doing as they manipulated the action on screen. One did not have to see the screen, that pantomime told the story. Pick up the ball from the rack, bring it up to the chest, swing it back behind, swing it forward and release. Roll. Strike! Bowling.

It really is an amazing and magical technology. Think about it. You are using natural real-world movement to mimic an action and it is happening in real time on a screen in front of you. No special gloves, wands, cables. Nothing. Just you. You pretend. It makes it real.

The problem is that Microsoft does not, can not, see it that way (and perhaps never will). They invented a device from the future yet could not untether themselves from the past and present. They could not see the potential to change the world with this device because they are too wedded to the idea that it had to work with the present. So, instead, it is just a toy, nothing more.

If they threw out the ideas and influences of the present, they could have seen that you could stand in front of a flat screen in your living room and manipulate objects on the screen like documents or pictures or folders or email – all through the same strange sort of pantomime. Perhaps it would understand your speech and respond to that as well.

“Open email from Steve.”

“Reply.”

“Steve, that time sounds perfect. Thanks”

“Send.”

That would change computing. It would set a bar leaving others to catch up. It would define a whole new category. That is disruptive. That is post PC. That is something I would buy. That is a platform I would invest a lot of money in. No matter the maker. I suspect I’m not alone.

Perhaps that is the most frustrating part to me. I see this future, and all the pieces to build it, sitting right there. We could have it, today, in every room in our house. Walk up to a screen and command it. Interact with the stuff you have there. Naturally. But, due to lack of vision, it’s not magic. It’s a game. As long as the blinders of the present and past remain, it will never be anything more.

There are those that believe that you need the experiences of the past and present to build the future. I’m calling bullshit. If you build on the past or present you simply extend the past and present. To build the future, you must let it stand alone. You must build it on top of a whole new platform. You must create whole new segments and spawn whole new eras.

The very act of invention involves forgetting everything you know. You can’t have a discussion about the future using the words and concepts of the past or present. You have to forget everything you know about the way people interact with a computer and reinvent it, as well, around this new future. Otherwise, you end up asking the wrong questions and trying to see where this new thing fits. And if the new thing does not fit you will find a way to make it fit.

In the case of the Kinect, Microsoft could not make it fit with Windows. They could not make it fit with Office. So, they found a way to make it fit with Xbox. They can’t see the Xbox platform beyond a gaming device. Therefore, naturally, they could not see the Kinect beyond just some cool peripheral to a game.

Contrast this with Apple and the iOS. They saw the future. They knew they had something nothing short of magic. To build it, they forgot everything they knew about the way one interacts with a computer. They did not find a way to make it fit. They redefined the very idea of computing around this new idea. They did not let the past or present inform them. They built the future. And, in doing so, they set a bar. It was disruptive. It caused everyone else to try to imitate. It changed the rules. They created a new era.

Changing The Flow

This is a heads up that I’m going to be changing the way I approach Twitter for the foreseeable future. Here is the new plan:

  • I will be treating my stream more like a microblog. I will be posting updates mainly through Reeder, Quotebook, Birdhouse, etc. This is an attempt to improve the quality and the value of the stuff I’m sharing. I want to share things that I think will add value to your precious and limited time. My hope is that you will find it worth the interruption and I will evaluate what I post based on that criteria alone.
  • I will only be dipping into my “stream” of folks I follow occasionally and will not be “catching up” by reading all the things I’ve missed. Therefore, I will likely miss some things. Which is OK. I need to reduce my fear of missing out by missing out. That said, if you feel that something requires my attention (i.e. Is it worth the interruption for me?) then I welcome your @reply, cc, or mention. I’ll be checking those for sure (see below).
  • As I do with my email, I will be responding to @replies and Direct Messages in batches and only for a certain time period every day. Unlike my stream, I will be “catching up” and reading all of these. That said, only @replies and Direct Messages that I feel require a response will receive one.

My intention is not to be aloof, condescending, or out of touch. My intention is to try this on for a while and see if it improves the value and quality for all involved. Most of all, it allows me to turn my focus to what I feel is my mission here on this rock, writing and curating.

iCloud – Conjecture, Magic, and A Fools Hope

Those who follow me on Twitter saw me drop this idea last night in my stream so this may not be new to you.

I was just thinking aloud after reading the umpteenth rumor/speculation/claim-chowder post about the alleged Apple iCloud service and the possibly to stream music from some giant locker in the sky. In almost every one of these I have read, it is speculated that one would be able to upload or store purchased music in some sort of cloud based digital locker – similar to the way Google and Amazon are doing it.

Here are some thoughts on that:

  • Why would Apple want to get into the upload game? Let those that don’t get it (see above) fail at that. All the reports I have read from those who have used the above similar services is that it sucks. Broadband speeds in America are slow, at best, on the upload stream. When was the last time Apple released anything that was slow, hard work, or difficult for, say, your Mom to understand.

  • Why would Apple have to do that? Apple likely knows what is in your iTunes library already. How? Genius. To generate those nifty Genius results in iTunes, your entire library is scanned and that data is sent to Apple where they can compare it against those of others and their purchase history.

  • Therefore, if they know what is in your library, and that info is connected to your AppleID, and that item is already on a server for sale on the iTunes store, why not just allow people to stream it? In other words, no upload needed.

This, I’m sure is bringing up a lot of questions. That’s OK. I’m here to help (which is especially easy with things I make up):

  • “But what about that live concert rip I downloaded off of Pirate Bay?”. Sorry. Can’t stream it. Has to be something for sale in the iTunes Music Store.

  • “But what about the stuff I bought from Amazon? Ripped from CD?” Buy it from Amazon? Rip it from CD? No matter. If iTunes sells it you can stream it.

  • “But most of what I listen to is not on the iTunes store!” Then, this service is not for you.

Apple does not care about the outliers here. Why should they? What’s the business case for doing so? The sales numbers tell the tale. Most regular people, the vast majority, buy their music from the iTunes Store and have for years. Such a service will be built and tailored for them.

The reason is obvious – Apple wants to make it even easier to listen to that music anywhere you have an Apple device so you buy more music. From Apple. To play on Apple products. Have an Apple product? Great! Any music you can buy in iTunes will be available to stream over WiFi or 3G to any Apple device.

Here, buy some music!

If you ever want to figure out what Apple is going to do in any case, look for these things…

1) What is the easiest to explain to anyone and everyone (Hi, Mom!)?

2) What is the simplest way to achieve the goal with the resources they already have?

3) What directly feeds the bottom line which is to sell more Apple stuff?

If your answer to any of these sounds like anything less than magic, pixie dust, and unicorn tears you are likely wrong.

Feel free to mark this as yet another piece of claim chowder and call me on it when the facts come out.